Munguia’s defense rests too often, so Canelo will come get him
By Charles Jay
May 4, 2024
Canelo Alvarez has his share of haters; enough to fill up the T-Mobile Arena and then some. So there is a lot of hope among viewers that Jaime Munguia, a kid out of Mexico who has run through 43 consecutive fights without a defeat, can force Canelo off the throne.
Winning belts from the alphabet organizations doesn’t mean a lot to the general public, but it meant a lot to Canelo to capture all four of the relevant 168-pound championships as recognized by the WBA, WBC, WBO and IBF.
And while Canelo is being criticized for not having been more receptive to a challenge that came from a former super middleweight titleholder, the undefeated David Benavidez, there are some who believe he’s in for trouble with Munguia, who made his mark as a junior middleweight and then moved up to the middleweight class before landing at 168 pounds, which has proven to be where the money is.
That is, if you can get a fight with Canelo Alvarez.
He’s not the favorite. These are the numbers we are looking at, as they are being used in WagerWAR:
CANELO ALVAREZ -450
JAMIE MUNGUIA +325
OVER 10.5 ROUNDS -220
UNDER 10.5 ROUNDS +180
Canelo’s detractors certainly want to believe that his skills are deteriorating. And to an extent, they are inevitably going to be right, because that’s what happens to fighters when they get older. Remember, Alvarez is 33 years old.
So is Munguia a likely candidate to exploit Canelo’s “decline”? Well, he is an all-action fighter who throws from his heels, and if he can land one, no one should question whether he can do some damage. He can crank things up and really make Canelo work. That sometimes isn’t great news for a guy who likes to set a more deliberate pace.
But there’s a thing about all-action fighters. They don’t get that way unless the other guy gets some action in as well. Munguia lets this happen because his defensive abilities are lacking, and he’s almost had to pay for them.
He’s had two fights in the super middleweight division, going back for a period of about a year, so let’s take a look at those. Against John Ryder, who had gone the distance with Alvarez, he absorbed some punishment but did manage to put an end to things. In the fight before that, which took place against Sergey Derevyanchenko, he could have, at numerous junctures, found himself on the canvas if he was opposing a better puncher. He wasn’t, but still needed a 12th-round knockout to eke out a majority decision.
Munguia gets hit cleanly far too much, and that’s a tough thing to take into a fight where (a) he is 14 pounds higher than his best weight; (b) is facing a seasoned champion who knows how to recognize an opening and take advantage of it; (c) will be getting hit by someone who may not be natural at this weight but still carries more than enough power, and (d) I’m not sure you need a “d” if you’ve got all those other things going.
I don’t think Munguia can beat Canelo, but the question is whether he can do it before the end of twelve rounds. Canelo will pick and choose his openings, for sure, and I’m sure he will do what he can to avoid getting into wild exchanges. Originally I was thinking Alvarez would knock him out, but what if he decides he is the much smarter and smoother boxer and decides that he is going to cruise to a decision win?
Here are some of the prices we’ve got on the exact result of the fight:
MUNGUIA TO WIN BY KO, TKO OR DQ +700
MUNGUIA TO WIN BY DECISION OR TECH DECISION +500
ALVAREZ TO WIN BY KO, TKO OR DQ +165
ALVAREZ TO WIN BY DECISION OR TECH DECISION -110
DRAW OR TECHNICAL DRAW +1800
Don’t discount the possibility that Canelo will come out aggressively early; Munguia has gotten caught early in fights and has been a little shaky. But that’s not Alvarez’s nature.
It’s unlikely to find this on an undefeated fighter, but I have not seen a “survival mode” in Munguia, and I’m not sure he has one. I don’t want to express a stereotype about Mexican fighters, but he appears to be a guy who’ll battle as long as he can. And this could be a treacherous path.
I can get +165 with a Canelo KO result, and maybe this touches on the “Total Rounds” prop, which might lead us to the +180 price going “Under 10.5.”
Regards,
CJ