Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice assume the favorite’s roles
By Charles Jay
We’re sure there were plenty of racegoers who felt that Forte was getting ready to win the Kentucky Derby in a virtual walk. The truth of the matter is that it probably never was like that. While it is true that Todd Pletcher’s star has won four Grade 1 races, and was justifiably the favorite, there were going to be other horses going to the gate who could challenge him. And besides, in the Derby there’s a crowd out there on the track, which allows for just about any possibility.
Weird stuff started to happen in the week leading up to the Derby. Two horses who were trained by Saffie Joseph died, which ultimately led to his suspension by the Kentucky racing commission. That took Lord Miles out of the race. Practical Move, a winner of three straight, including the Santa Anita Derby, also scratched. So did Continuar, who had run in both the Saudi and UAE Derby, as did Skinner, who was bumped in the Santa Anita Derby but still finished just a half-length behind Practical Move.
And then the favorite was out of the race.
Forte has been captured stumbling out on the track during a training session. People were alarmed. But Pletcher assured everyone that there was nothing at all to worry about. He was on the vet’s list, but so were four or five other horses.
On Saturday the commission and the doctors took a look at him and declared him out, due to a bruise in his left front foot. There were protests from Pletcher and co-owner Mike Repole, the latter of whom suggested this was a decision that was particular to Kentucky and that there were a number of other states that would let Forte run.
And so you have fans who were upset because they didn’t think Pletcher was being honest and forthcoming about Forte’s condition, and others who were pissed off with trainer and owner at the notion that they would be eager to send a horse to the gate who was not 100% healthy, especially one with as much earning potential.
What all of this has done is leave us with a more wide-open situation, with some quality talent involved. Some of the excitement could come from horses like Kingsbarns and Mage, veterans of just three outings who did not compete as two-year-olds and have run big races recently. And there are the horses with foreign connections like Derma Sotogake, who ships in from Japan and has some history working against him.
So we proceed with the first leg of the Triple Crown, where hopefully we’ll have some suspense in the running, and in the aftermath are spared too much suspense in finding out whether the winner will move forward and compete in the Preakness.
That would be a nice thing to happen.
Here are the entrants for the Kentucky Derby, and their up-to-the-minute odds as they are posted at the BetOnline sportsbook:
14 Angel of Empire +400
5 Tapit Trice +500
17 Derma Sotogake +600
3 Two Phil’s +1000
6 Kingsbarns +1100
8 Mage +1400
2 Verifying +1400
22 Mandarin Hero +1500
4 Confidence Game +1800
7 Reincarnate +2000
1 Hit Show +2800
11 Disarm +3300
21 Cyclone Mischief +4000
23 King Russell +4000
16 Raise Cain +4000
13 Sun Thunder +4000
12 Jace’s Road +5000
18 Rocket Can +5000
(1) HIT SHOW (+2800)
This horse has been the favorite in every race he’s had, and won three of them. …….. A winner of the Withers at Aqueduct, he has yet to appear in a Grade 1 race. All in all, has been in with much lesser than the best that he is going to face on Saturday. And in an optional claimer back in November, was beaten handily by Confidence Game and Rocket Can, who are entered in the Derby. ………. This is not a classic “speed” horse; he’s a slow starter, and is coming from a tough position out of the #1 post in a crowded field of 19. Owner Gary West earned a place in Derby infamy with the DQ’d Maximum Security in 2019.
(2) VERIFYING (+1400)
This is the son of Triple Crown winner Justify………. Broke maiden last August and went into the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont in his next outing. Lost the lead in the stretch and finished second to Blazing Sevens…….. Then finished sixth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. …….. Ran second in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, his third G-1 event, and again lost the lead late, losing by a neck to Tapit Trice. Earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort, indicating that he’s someone to keep in mind, considering that Tapit Trice may go off as the first or second favorite in the Derby.
(3) TWO PHIL’S (+1000)
Was seventh in the Breeders Futurity, his only Grade 1 event to date. And faded a little in the Risen Star, coming third to Angel of Empire (the Derby favorite) and Sun Thunder…….. Was very impressive in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, registering the highest speed figure of any horse that is in this field……. In almost every race, has been near the lead coming into the stretch.
(4) CONFIDENCE GAME (+`1800)
The signature win on his record came in the Rebel Stakes. But that was, by far, the best speed figure he’s had……… Inconsistency marks his career. That includes second place (by seven lengths) in an optional claimer last fall……. What might be significant for our purposes is the fact that this horse has two win at Churchill Downs, though nothing in a stakes capacity.
(5) TAPIT TRICE (+500)
A winner of four out of five races…… Here is a horse with a great closing kick, coming from eight lengths back to win the Tampa Bay Derby…….. Also won the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, posting a 99 Beyer speed rating in the process……. That was the race in which he moved up to a mile and an eighth, which is encouraging……. Was looking forward to a showdown with Forte, although of course that won’t happen, quite yet…….. But he’s also trained by Todd Pletcher………. Sired by Tapit, who won the Wood Memorial when it as a Grade 1 race, but made much more of a mark as a sire of stakes winners………. Probably has the most consistent speed of any contender in this field.
(6) KINGSBARNS (+1100)
Another Tood Pletcher charge, who has made everything look easy thus far…….. No races as a two-year-old, which may prejudice some analysts against him……. Sired by Uncle Mo, the Breeders Cup Juvenile winner from 2010…….. Has won all three of his races, rising rapidly, from breaking maiden to an optional claimer (winning by 7-3/4 lengths) and an imposing win in the Louisiana Derby, beating out Kentucky Derby entrants like Disarm and Jace’s Road…….This will be the first race with Jose Ortiz aboard……. The possibility exists that he might take it to the front early. Can he hold up?
(7) REINCARNATE (+2000)
Was trained by Bob Baffert, who’s on a suspension from Churchill Downs, so Tim Yakteen has taken over…….. Did not break maiden until his fourth start. Then proceeded to win the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita…….. Registered third place finishes in the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby…….. Has John Velasquez riding; he’s won this race three times.
(8) MAGE (+1400)
Has had three races after sitting out as a two-year-old. In his last race, at the mile and an eighth distance, dueled with Forte all the way down the stretch, but lost a lead and finished a length behind in the Florida Derby……… That was a redemption, after a disappointing fourth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, also at Gulfstream. ………. Javier Castellano, who rode him in the F.O.Y., is in the saddle again today, after Luis Saez handled things in the Florida Derby (and is on Tapit Trice on Saturday)…… This is a good price, which makes it difficult to ignore him as part of an exotic.
(11) DISARM (+3300)
Good bloodlines, with Gun Runner as a sire and Tapit as the grandsire……. Trained by Steve Asmussen, who thought he had a Derby winner last year with Epicenter before Rich Strike came on strong right before the wire…… Was a so-so second in the Louisiana Derby, beaten soundly by Kingsbarns…….. Went to Keeneland and came third in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes last time out.
(12) JACE’S ROAD (+5000)
Likely to be an early runner here…… Has done no better than third in any graded stakes race…… One of multiple horses entered by Brad Cox into this race…… When moving up beyond a mile and a sixteenth, found himself losing steam down the stretch in the Louisiana Derby, although he still managed to run in the money…… Sired by Quality Road, a winner of the Florida Derby and Met Mile…… Ridden by Florent Geroux, who won the Breeders Cup Classic on Gun Runner. And that’s interesting, as Jace’s Road’s best result was the Gun Runner Stakes (non-graded) at the Fairgrounds in December.
(13) SUN THUNDER (+4000)
Coming off a fourth-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, in which he had very little impact……. The same can be said of a fifth-place in the Louisiana Derby, in which he never really fired……. The best moment was probably a strong run in the Risen Star, where he held the lead in the stretch before being beaten a length by Derby favorite Angel of Empire……Winner of only $247,500……Trained by Ken McPeek, who won the Preakness three years ago with Swiss Skydiver.
(14) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (+400)
Definitely bringing some momentum into the Kentucky Derby. these last two races have been outstanding. First there was a nice come-from-behind effort in the Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds. Then there was a very impressive 4-1/2 length win in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, which was his sixth start……. These last two outings have produced his two best speed figures…….. The only time Angel of Empire has finished worse than second was in a turf race last September……. One of several contestants entered by trainer Brad Cox, but without question the best.
(16) RAISE CAIN (+4000)
The bright shining moment for Raise Cain was a 7-1/2 length win in the Gotham Stakes that came as a 23-1 shot. That came on a muddy track at Aqueduct. Then his connections, including trainer Ben Colebrook, put him into the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, in which he trailed the field for a while, but then moved up in the stretch to finish fifth…………. Everything longer than a mile has been something of a downer, so the conclusion is that it is unlikely that Raise Cain can get the distance.
(17) DERMA SOTOGAKE (+600)
This Japanese-bred has come a long way for this race……… Has had contact with this kind of competition. Won a handicap race last November, beating out Continuar (a Derby scratch) by a nose…… His biggest win came easy, with a wire-to-wire triumph in the $1,000,000 UAE Derby, beating Continuar again. That makes him one of only two horses going to the starting gate in the Derby who have over a million dollars in winnings……….And it also serves notice that this is a horse with speed, both early and late……. The downside is that no horse who has won the UAE Derby has even hit the board in the Run For the Roses.
(18) ROCKET CAN (+5000)
This horse is trained by William Mott, most noteworthy for guiding Cigar to world fame. Rocket Can was not a big factor in the Arkansas Derby (fourth), but did score an impressive win at Gulfstream in the Grade 3 Holy Bull in February, then followed that with a second place finish to Forte in the Fountain of Youth Stakes…….. Grandsired by Tapit, like a couple of others in the field.
(21) CYCLONE MISCHIEF (+4000)
As an also-eligible, drew into this field with all the scratches this week…….. We guess you’d have to be thinking of Cyclone Mischief as a horse who can possibly figure into the money, as he finished third in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, with Forte winning both of those races…….. Ran in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last year as a two-year-old, and led going into the stretch. But faded badly and wound up finishing seventh…… Trained by Dale Romans, who pulled off a big upset in the Travers with Keen Ice over American Pharoah in 2015.
(22) MANDARIN HERO (+1500)
Gets his Derby shot after other horses were scratched…….. Went four-for-four as a two-year-old in Japan. Shipped over to run in the Santa Anita Derby a couple of weeks ago. Lost a heart-breaking decision by a nose to Practical Move (who is a Derby scratch)…… Was gradually brought to the mile and an eighth distance, which he has run in the last two……. Put forth a 100 Brisnet speed figure at Santa Anita, so there is at least some reason he could be a factor here.
(23) KING RUSSELL (+4000)
It took this horse four unsuccessful tries before breaking maiden on the fifth. And even with rather mediocre speed figures, that was enough for his handlers, including trainer Ron Moquett, to out him into the Arkansas Derby. Despite the tremendous leap in competition, right into a Grade 1, he finished second to Angel of Empire, passing a number of horses in the stretch. Not bad for a 59-1 shot. Was that an outlier, or can he be competitive again?
Aside from betting on the Kentucky Derby in the BetOnline racebook, you can indulge in plenty of special props, including head-to-head matchups, within the sportsbook ……….. And it’s so easy to open up an account; just use your credit card, or any of the multitude of cryptocurrency options that are available to you!