We could go one forever when writing about Super Bowl 59, and Lord knows that all the information you’d want to have about both of the teams is available to be plucked.
That’s one of the reasons we prefer brevity when it comes to our Super Bowl predictions.
And let’s face it – we are afforded the opportunity to bring this thing down to a certain set of fundamentals that are going to govern the way this game is going to go.
There is not too much argument as to whether the Kansas City Chiefs or the Philadelphia Eagles actually belong in the game. Kansas City is after its third straight Super Bowl win, which, of course, is unprecedented, while Philly scored 55 points in the NFC Championship Game.
Let’s look at this game, at the Superdome in New Orleans.
In the Super Bowl 59 betting odds that have been posted on this game by the folks at BetOnline, the Chiefs are the ever-so-slight favorites:
Kansas City Chiefs -1
Philadelphia Eagles +1
Over 48.5 Points -110
Under 48.5 Points -110
Moneyline:
Chiefs -115
Eagles +100
Of course, these teams played in the Super Bowl two years ago, and there is a distinct difference between the Eagles team, that played in that three-point loss and this team. While Philadelphia was #1 in the NFL in rushing that season, they did not have the legitimate big-play threat in the backfield that produced a real MVP candidate. Saquon Barkley has over 2400 rushing yards and has broken several huge runs in the playoffs. Barkley, who was about to get through the whole year without injury, has had 25 different runs of fifteen yards or more, and in this game he’s facing a defense that has thrived on blitzes but may not afford to be able to do that an awful lot, considering that if Barkley doesn’t burn you in the run game, quarterback Jalen Hurts can. The Chiefs know this; Hurts scored three touchdowns on the ground against them in Super Bowl 57, and the former Alabama and Oklahoma star is better than he was two years ago, when one of this turnovers was a difference maker to help the Chiefs win.
We don’t think Steve Spagnuolo can play his defense the way he wants here, and none of this even includes the ability of Hurts to scramble around and buy time to make plays. Kansas City has allowed more yards on quarterback scrambles than any other team in the league.
Philadelphia’s ground game is just going to be a pain in the ass to deal with. They are second in the NFL in explosive runs (20 yards or more). They are second in yards BEFORE contact. And they have the best offensive line in the league, even when considering that Cam Jurgens, at center, is a little banged up for this game. Think about this – Barkley gained over `1000 yards this season BEFORE contact.
Kansas City’s best shot to pressure Hurts will be to get to the inside on the pass rush, because they’re not getting anywhere when it comes to Philadelphia’s offensive tackles – Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata – who are the best pair there is. And then of course when you make Hurts get to the fringes, there are more things bad than good that can happen when you’re playing defense. Oh, have we mentioned that AJ Brown leads the NFL in yards per route run against man coverage, which is what you’ll going to see KC using a lot?
Let’s talk about the Chiefs’ side of this offensive line thing. Kansas City’s tackles have been bad enough that one of them was removed and replaced by a guard. For the past six or seven weeks, Jon Thuney, a Pro Bowl left guard, has been pushed to the outside by coach Andy Reid, but as good an O-lineman as Thuney is, his presence, out of position, represents an opportunity for Philadelphia defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to exploit. And then, of course, there is Mike Caliendo, who slides into Thuney’s place. That’s a downgrade.
Fangio doesn’t blitz much (19% of the time in the regular season) and doesn’t have to, because he can generate pressure without it. The Eagles, statistically, are the best coverage team in the league with the two brilliant rookie acquisitions at corner (Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell) and according to the analytics gurus at Pro Football Focus, they have the highest-graded set of linebackers in the NFL, led by another of Howie Roseman’s gems – All-Pro Zach Baum – who was acquired from New Orleans.
We also keep in mind that this Kansas City team is not the league’s best at stretching things out. The ground game is last in the NFL at breaking loose with explosive runs, and Patrick Mahomes, who has one of the league’s lowest Intended Air Yards totals (6.2 per throw) has thrown 27% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage. Even with the availability of speed demon Xavier Worthy (4.2 forty-yard dash), this makes the Chiefs easier to defend. They’re going to just keep dinking and dunking it down the field, and remember that they scored 30 points only in the AFC title game against Buffalo.
Much is made of the tight ends in the game. Travis Kelce hasn’t brought as much to the table as he has in the past (under 1000 yards, just four TD’s) and Noah Gray has emerged as a second option. Well, Philadelphia has allowed the fewest yards to tight ends this season, while the Chiefs have yielded the most, which will be good news for Dallas Goedert.
So it will be up to the Eagles to get some kind of pass rush going, but also cover those intermediate routes. It will be a task, since Philly devotes itself to guarding against big plays.
You can’t ignore some of the following things:
– Mahomes’ scrambling ability has had a tendency to come out in these big games, and the Eagles have to be wary of it.
– The Chiefs have won 17 straight games that have been decided by one possession.
– Andy Reid has gone 34-7 straight-up after a bye week (not counting opening weeks)
– The Eagles have surrendered the fewest yards per game and per play, along with the fewest points per game
– Mahomes has won 14 out of 15 games indoors
– Mahomes has thrown 288 consecutive passes without an interception (of course, when you’re throwing it behind the line that’s to be expected)
– In addition, in their two playoff games, Mahomes has thrown the ball ten yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage just seven times
– The Eagles have scored first in each of their last seven games
– The team that has scored first in the Super Bowl has won 37 out of 58 times. That’s 63.8%
– The Chiefs have won 29 consecutive games when leading after the first quarter
– In their last 40 games, the Chiefs have seen the second half over-under go to the “under” 29 times, which represents a frequency of 73%
Some of you are going to take into consideration that the Chiefs seem to get more than enough breaks from the officials as well, although we think that with so much of a spotlight on that, we’re not sure it’s a big factor.
Yeah, the Chiefs certainly know how to win the close ones, although truth be told, the Eagles know how to win a few too. They, more than any team this season, have the ability to exploit what we see as potential chinks in the Kansas City armour. And they have the one weapon the Chiefs can’t hope to duplicate. That’s Barkley, who can break one at any time.
That;s why we like Philadelphia, And in a secondary way, we’ll lan toward the under, since it’s our feeling that KC has every intention of slowing things down and “taking the air out of the ball.”
THE PLAYS: EAGLES +110 (Money Line) and UNDER 48.5 POINTS
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