NFL Betting Picks – Will we see a scoring fest when Chiefs host Ravens?
By Charles Jay
The Kansas City Chiefs are going after their third consecutive Super Bowl championship. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to be unstoppable in the regular season.
If you were watching last year, they struggled mightily at times. For heaven’s sake, the Denver Broncos, who had been obliterated en route to yielding 70 points to Miami not long before, held Kansas City to 28 in two meetings.
Fortunately, KC was able to come on like champions at the end.
On Thursday night they are kicking off the 2024 season against a revenge-minded opponent. The Chiefs beat the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC title game in January, and now they come into Arrowhead Stadium for a game that will be televised by NBC and begins at 8:20 PM ET.
In that AFC Championship contest, the teams combined for 38 first downs and 655 yards, which are not awe-inspiring figures. Kansas City controlled the ball for 37-½ minutes and prevailed 17-10 as the visitor. What’s important about this game is that the winner will have a tie-breaker edge if these clubs wind up deadlocked with the best record in the conference.
Here are the NFL betting odds that have been posted on this game, which have the defending champions as the slight favorite, on the strength of their home field advantage:
Kansas City Chiefs -3 (+100)
Baltimore Ravens +3 (-120)
Over 46.5 points -110
Under 46.5 points -110
The Chiefs come into this game with a problem that isn’t all that different than the one they had last season. In the off-season, they acquired former Raven Marquise “Holywood” Brown, who was supposed to give them the downfield threat they have been looking for since Tyreek Hill was traded away. But Brown injured his shoulder in training camp and won’t play.
Brown was supposed to be the guy to stretch the field and make life easier for Patrick Mahomes. This leaves the Chiefs hoping that rookie Xavier Worthy can have a quick impact. Worthy, who played his college ball at Texas, set the record for the fastest 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. So he has the potential to fly.
Why does Mahomes win titles? He’s adapts
Whatever the case, Mahomes has been able to adapt to whatever he’s had around him. You’ve seen what’s happened with Hill in Miami; well, the Chiefs have won two Super Bowls without him.
What he’s doing, to use the oft-beaten phrase, is “taking what the defense gives him.” Mahomes is throwing for shorter distances, and that has enabled him to get the ball out of his hands quickly and utilize his more efficient weapons.
Let’s take a look at his Intended Air Yards per attempt over the last six seasons. In case you’re not aware, IAY describes the yardage past the line of scrimmage that he has thrown the football. You’ll see that in each of the last five seasons, his IAY has decreased:
| Season | IAY per attempt | League Rank |
| 2018 | 9.1 | 6th |
| 2019 | 8.8 | 9th |
| 2020 | 8.4 | 12th |
| 2021 | 7.3 | 24th |
| 2022 | 7.2 | 23rd |
| 2023 | 6.5 | 30th |
So we wonder how likely this pattern is to change and how much of an effect Worthy and (eventually) Brown will have on the play-calling.
Pacheco is more than an “X” factor
One thing that can’t be discounted at all is the Kansas City ground game. And the main guy there is Isiah Pacheco, a seventh-round draft pick out of Rutgers who has established himself very solidly as the #1 back. Pacheco averaged 4.9 yards per carry as a rookie, and last year he had 935 yards (4.6 per attempt) with 44 catches. He knows how to find the end zone, and he was absolutely essential in the drive to the Super Bowl.
The takeaway from this is that Mahomes has no problem dumping the ball off to Pacheco, and certainly he has absolute confidence that he can run the ball and win. In the AFC title game, KC ran it 45% of the time.
The Ravens stop people
The Baltimore defense is a challenge for Mahomes and the Chiefs, because last season the Ravens allowed just 4.7 Net Yards per passing attempt, which was best in the NFL. They also allowed the fewest points and had 18 interceptions.
This year there’s a change. Mike Macdonald had become the latest defensive “guru” in the NFL, but took himself to Seattle to replace Pete Carroll as head coach. The new defensive coordinator, Zach Orr, spent three years with the Ravens as a linebacker, and has spent a total of six years as an assistant with Baltimore (interrupted by a short stint in Jacksonville). He is a first-time DC elevated from linebackers coach, but there’s some continuity here. So things won’t be materially different.
Question marks: The Chiefs’ offensive line
With Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney and Trey Smith, the middle of Kansas City’s offensive line is as good as there is in the NFL. But it’s the tackles that have been a problem. Jawaan Taylor, on the right side, graded out at no better than 72nd at his position by the analytics guys at Pro Football Focus last season, and Wanya Morris and Donovan Smith were not big solutions on the left.
Andy Reid has decided to give the start at left tackle to rookie Kingsley Suamataia, a second-round pick from BYU. He’s characterized as a “freakish athlete,” and Reid swears he’s ready to go, but Suamataia is going to have to negotiate his way through the Ravens’ pass rush, which led the league with 60 sacks last season.
Question marks: Derrick Henry
Baltimore led the NFL in rushing yards last year, and Lamar Jackson had 821 of those yards. The Ravens reached out and acquired Derrick Henry in the hopes that he might give them the kind of performance one would expect out of a featured back.
There is no questioning Henry’s credentials – he’s a two-time rushing champion who rambled for 2027 yards for the Titans in 2020. But he’s 30 now, and one has to ask how much he actually has left. He’s had 1529 attempts over the last five seasons, including one year where he played only eight games. He did carry it only 16.5 times per game in 2023. Does that reflect the wear and tear? Coach John Harbaugh would like to take some of the pressure off Henry in his quest to take some pressure off Jackson, if you know what we mean. Justice Hill is available as a #2 back if things get dicey.
Don’t overlook the Kansas City defense
We know that Chris Jones has been listed as questionable for this one, but we expect he’d be available and ready to contribute. And we want to remind everybody that KC was second in the league in points allowed last year, not to mention fourth in passing yards allowed. The stop units had previously been “adequate,” but DC Steve Spagnuolo pushed all the right buttons en route to a third Super Bowl title in five seasons.
The message here, considering the quality on that side of the ball, is that don’t be surprised, despite the presence of two QB’s who have been MVP’s, if the defenses have a leg up on the proceedings.
Conclusion
Both of these teams have defenses that are geared up to stop big plays on the part of the opposition. As a consequence, sometimes they leave themselves open to running plays. They both allowed 4.5 yards per carry last season, which is high. These ground games should be able to operate. So we won’t be shocked if we didn’t see a contest that was very wide-open.
That said, we must also consider that the Chiefs simply play a lot of low-scoring games at Arrowhead Stadium. In fact, sixteen of their last 19 home games have gone UNDER the total. We see room in what’s posted. So that’s the way we’re going.
THE PLAY: UNDER 46.5